T he blue dam could be starting to break in the Beaver State, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifting its rating in the governor's race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.”
Republican contender Christine Drazan has been running strong in the three-way race between former state House Speaker Tina Kotek and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson in polling. Despite Oregon being a traditionally deep-blue state, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has been unpopular, according to a local outlet, seemingly giving the GOP a rare opening.
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"@CookPolitical has moved their race rating in our direction again. Two months ago our race was 'likely Democrat,' now we're a 'toss-up.' The momentum is on our side!" Drazan tweeted in excitement.
Underlying the shift is Johnson's potential to siphon votes away from Kotek and polling showing a nailbiter between Drazan and Kotek. Johnson spent over $900,000 on her bid to obtain the necessary signatures to land a spot on the Oregon ballot and has considerably more cash on hand than either of her two opponents, KGW reported.
"No race for governor has been more surprising than Oregon," the Cook Political Report wrote. “There’s a clear trend of both Kotek and Drazan pulling in the low 30s, while Johnson has yet to poll higher than the mid-20s, though she has argued that will rise post-Labor Day."
Although traditionally Democrat, Oregon has one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, Oregon Live reported. Oregon's largest city, Portland, endured a 65% uptick in homicides last year relative to 2020, per the Portland Police Bureau. The city experienced heightened unrest during the summer of 2020 as protests in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd swept the nation.
RATINGS CHANGE this morning at @CookPolitical: we are shifting #ORGov from Lean D to Toss Up. No gubernatorial race has been more surprising than this one, but a unique three-way race w/a well-funded independent means the winner may only need 35-40% https://t.co/1kKGO9fdHi
President Joe Biden edged out former President Donald Trump 56.5% to 40.4% during the 2020 presidential election in Oregon.
Eyeing Drazan's surprisingly strong performance in Oregon, national Republican groups have begun pouring money into the race, hoping to score an upset victory. Earlier in the summer, Republicans had been riding high heading into the midterm elections, expecting a red wave, but the momentum appears to have been crashing in recent weeks.
Still, Drazan has managed to remain competitive. As with other races across the country, Kotek and other Democrats have hammered Drazan for her "pro-life" position on abortion. Drazan has reassured voters that she will be unable to pass restrictive measures to curb abortion if she were to win due to the Democrats' grip on Oregon.
This is a strong example of how to run as a pro-life Republican in a deep-blue state.@ChristineDrazan—who could be Oregon’s first Republican governor since 1987—reaffirms her stance on life while neutering the attack that she could actually pass sweeping abortion restrictions: pic.twitter.com/7jhVhTgGrR
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If Kotek manages to fend off Drazan, she could become one of the first two openly gay women to serve as governor, the Hill reported. Massachusetts gubernatorial nominee Maura Healey could also become one of the first openly lesbian governors in the country, should she win her race.